Random Thoughts for March 10th, 2010

School has once again slaughtered my blogging.  The Top 5 in 2010 series is kaput.  But I'm still doing radio, so I need to have something up.  Here are some random thoughts for the spring training baseball we've seen:

•  Why are reporters like  Jon Paul Morosi talking about batting averages in spring training?  It's great that Austin Jackson is hitting over .500.  But you can't ignore the two obvious truths that come with that: 1) It's spring training, who cares and 2) It's 13 ABs.  That's like driving a car around the block once and deciding the car is the best ever and that's that.
•  Aroldis Chapman throws like crazy hard.  Reds Reporter wrote a nice piece about it.  Velocity is a tricky animal to consider.  For one, throwing a minimum velocity is required to be a quality pitcher, say 88-90 MPH.  But, to be an ace, you almost need to sit at 90 and no lower, don't you?  I'm not sure.  But I do know that velocity isn't more important than command or movement, all three are vital.  Chapman has the velocity; the other two will be found out over time.
• Joe Nathan :(.  This can happen at any time, to any pitcher.  Elbows are not walls of steel.  They can be broken, torn, overworked, any number of things.  Sometimes, though, they just... go.
• I've said this a million times.  Put Joba Chamberlain in the rotation, leave him alone, and let Phil Hughes be the setup guy.  I fear the Yankees have wrecked Chamberlain with the Rules.  If so, they cost themselves a potential ace.
• Speaking of wrecking potential stars, the Dodgers should be really worried about Russell Martin.  He's played an insane amount of games the last few years, and the numbers have steadily fallen.  For God's sake, Joe, cut him off at 130 or so.  (Martin caught 151 games in 07, 155 in 08 and 143 last season.)  He could've been an awesome player, he was an awesome player, and now he's declining and hurt.  Something's not right there.
• I, for one, would love to see the Yankees move into the NL East.  The idea of winning 110 games a year--minimum-- is appealing.  The idea Rob Neyer wrote about seems similar to what the English Premier League does.  (Basically, if Team A sucks, they move into a pseudo-minor league until they reach a certain level of quality.)  Any soccer fans can correct me on that, but the idea is at least fun.  It won't happen, but it's fun to think about.

Email Adam at adamdadkins@gmail.com.

Top 5 In 2010 Series: First Base

Last time we counted down the 5 best catchers for today and tomorrow, so catch up if you missed it.

First base is a loaded position in today's game, making it a near-antithesis of catcher.  The crown jewel of the position is of course Albert Pujols, but do you realize how awesome Prince Fielder is?

Mark Teixeira is the first baseman for the New York Yankees (read: he's famous).  But do you realize how awesome his inner-division rivals, Kevin Youkilis and Carlos Pena, are?

Justin Morneau won a freakin' MVP, but is he better than Miguel Cabrera?  Plus we've got another former MVP, Ryan Howard, to contend with.  Youngsters like Joey Votto demand to be counted, too.

Should be a fun countdown.  Starts after the jump.

1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals

Fangraphs' awesome value metric, WAR, has records back to 2002.  Albert Pujols has been playing first base since 2003.

Every single year since, Pujols has led first baseman in WAR.

He's the best right now, he'll be the best tomorrow, and no one else at first is close.

2.  Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers

Yes, his defense is bad, but not horrific.  Yes, he's slow.

But to look at Fielder's negatives is too ignore his positives.  He's 25, he's raked like a groundskeeper his whole career and he's improving.

In 2006, his OPS+ was 110.  One season later, that figure jumped 47 points to 157.  In 2008 he slid a bit, back to 130, which is like going from Frank Thomas to Jim Rice (meaning he was still very good).

But in 2009, it all came together.  Fielder hit .298/.412/.602 (a 168 OPS+) and in my mind, solidified himself as the second-best first baseman in the league.    That isn't to say this one wasn't close...

3.  Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees

Fielder is a clearly ahead of Teixeira.  But Teixeira is neck-and-neck with Adrian Gonzalez, but I gave the nod to Teixeira.  Why? 

League difference.  Teixeira toils in the toughest division in baseball.  Gonzalez toils in one of the weaker (albeit getting better) divisions in baseball.  Plus, Teixeira is in the AL and Gonzalez the NL.  Simply put, Teixeira faces tougher competition.

The gap isn't big, though. 

Teixeira was exactly what the Yankees wanted him to be.   A superb power hitter, he's a virtual lock to slug north of .550, and given his OBP capabilities (.375 or better), that makes him a terrific offensive asset.

WAR basically thinks that Teixeira isn't as good defensively as Gonzalez (or Fielder, which is insane).  It thinks Teixeira is below-average.  I'm not saying he's Keith Hernandez, but I know he's better than Fielder with the glove.

4.  Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres

I feel bad now.  I hope I didn't belittle Adrian just now.  There's a damn good reason the Red Sox have tried to rip him away from the Padres.  He's an excellent player.

Like Fielder, Gonzalez's best year is easily last year.  WAR says he was worth 6.4 wins, a large jump from 2008 (3.5).  That helped my argument for Teixeira over Gonzalez, but it could also illustrate that Gonzalez is just getting started.

5.  Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox

Don't overlook the GGOW.  He's an excellent player.  He's an OBP and SLG machine, plus he could probably play a solid third base. 

If Boston were to acquire Gonzalez, they'd add to the AL East's sterling corner-infield combinations.  Think about it.  Yankees with Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez; Boston would have Gonzalez and Youkilis; plus Tampa Bay countering with Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria.

In other news, it's fun to be Alex Anthopoulos.

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Honorable Mention

-Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay Rays

A slugging and defensive whiz without the OBP to compare to the top-5.

-Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies

Same story as Pena, just in the NL.

-Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers

Miggy's top-4 BR comps through his current age are all Hall of Famers.

-Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins

The former MVP has a nice slugging partner in Joe Mauer.

-Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds

Third in NL OPS last season. 

-Todd Helton, Colorado Rockies

Time to start talking Hall of Fame?  Career line of .328/.427/.567.


Email Adam at adamdadkins@gmail.com

Top 5 In 2010 Series: Catcher

Hey, back from a nice 2-week break, right in time for the most glorious of days.  Oh yes, kids.  Baseball is back.

Or, we're getting closer to being back.  Either way, things are looking up.

Now, about the title.  I've decided to do a Top 5 in 2010 Series this year as part of my 2010 MLB previews, and the idea is simple.  A ranking of the 5 best players at each position in the sport on a 3-year basis, taking into account, well, everything.  Age, defense, stats, and history.  Oh, and teh fear.

The fun begins with the backstops.

Is Lance Berkman A Hall of Famer?

Lance Berkman has mashed like a son of a gun his whole career, yet I must wonder.  Do the masses realize this, and consider him an elite player, much less a Hall of Fame candidate?

Probably not.  Due to the Astros rather pitiful management, he's only had one moment in the spotlight--and he wasn't the story, Roger Clemens was.

But that's sad, because Berkman is and was a freakin' masher of the highest order.

So Who Should Play Centerfield For The Yanks?

The Yankees have a question.  Given their enormous advantage in resources (read: money) they rarely are forced to make tough roster decisions.

"What's that?  We have no first baseman?  Well, go sign Mark Teixiera!"

The Yankees are planning on an outfield of Brett Gardner, Curtis Granderson and Nick Swisher.  Swisher is in right.  That's locked down.  But the other two--let's assume Randy Winn is the fourth-outfielder--don't have defined roles.

Granderson is a Proven Center Fielder; Gardner came up in center.  Both have somewhat staked a claim to the position, but neither are obvious options.  

Why not?  Read on.

Do You Realize How Awesome Barry Bonds Was (In 1990)?

Barry Bonds is an easy choice for this week's awesome piece, but thanks to his rather amazing body of work, I can go many different ways.  

And I did.  I won't be discussing 2001 (73 homers), 2004 (263 OPS+) or any of the other 200 OPS+ seasons, for that matter.

Instead, I want to look back to when Barry was a premium defender and base runner as well.  Let's head back to 1990, when Barry, at the tender age of 25, would win his first of several MVP awards.

Reaction: Orlando Cabrera is a Red

Here's the details.   Fun begins after the jump.