Saturday, January 9, 2010

Do You Remember How Awesome Randy Johnson Was?

About the recently retired Randy Johnson.

I've found that fans can look at a legend like the Unit and say, "Yeah, that dude was great." It's obvious: 303 wins, 4,875 strikeouts.

But do you know how great Randy was? Really know? Let me show you a couple stretches of his career, starting with his early years, 1990-93.

1990-93

Over the period, Johnson threw 886 innings to an 113 ERA+. Not bad. Not great, but good. The potential could be seen, though, in his astounding 9.9 strikeout rate. The 5.2 walk rate is pretty bad, and holds him back a great deal.

But if you have a gigantic left-hander throwing really hard and striking out a bunch of dudes, that's a reason to be excited. However, Johnson wasn't young (by 1993 he was 29 years old), and expecting a player to improve as he ages isn't bright.

That said, the Mariners excitement--I'm assuming they were, I wasn't there--was rewarded in the next 4-year stretch:

94-98

Johnson threw 906 innings to an 162 ERA+. That's a monumental leap in run-prevention, and it can be traced to one development: command. Johnson's walk rate fell by 2 walks per 9, his strikeouts went up by 1.1 Ks per 9.

That gave him an excellent 3.70 K to BB rate, and officially made Johnson a dominant pitcher. Amazingly, the writers agreed: The Unit also won his first Cy Young Award in 1995, and could have easily won in 1994 (I think I'd take Johnson's year over David Cone's).

But you know what? His next 4-year stretch is even better.

99-02

In his first four years as a Diamondback, his age 35 to 38 period, Johnson lit the world on fire. He threw 1,030 innings. His ERA+ was 188. (Context alert: Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, Tim Lincecum, and Johan Santana have never thrown a season with an ERA+ that high.)

He struck out 1,417 batters (that's a pedestrian 12.4 strikeout rate), walked only 288 (2.5 per 9) and won 4 consecutive Cy Young Awards.

Johnson won 81 games, made 139 starts and was a key factor in a World Series victory. He threw 31 complete games and 11 shutouts. He allowed just 98 home runs, which puts his per 9 rate under 1.

I haven't done the necessary leg work to be sure, but I can't imagine many pitchers had such a stretch. The ERA+ could happen--I think immediately of Greg Maddux--but the dominance, too? Clemens never had that kind of stretch (although he had some great ones). Pedro's 2000 is astronomical, but it was one season.

I'm not going to tell you he's a Hall of Famer because why waste the electrons? It's obvious. So obvious that nimrods like Murray Chass won't be able to avoid the vote.

We can worry about that later, though. For now, just remember how incredibly awesome the Unit was. We'll probably never see another like him.

Adam can be reached at adamdadkins@gmail.com

2 comments:

Steve G. said...

Johnson is a clear first-ballot Hall of Fame guy to me. While his peak value wasn't as ridiculous as Pedro's, he was more durable, which was surprising given how god damn tall he was.

Re: our comments the other day, I do have AIM - ChemBros15. However, wait until tomorrow to send me an IM, because I'm mostly on cell phone AIM and work AIM for Saturday. Busy day for me, even though it's the weekend.

Adam Adkins said...

See, we disagree there. I think Johnson's peak was better, because it basically lasted 8 years. Pedro's peaked was higher, but not nearly as long.

Support the Haiti Disaster Relief Effort