On Joe Mauer's Future

Jon Heyman did what he does best, report (as opposed to analyze) with his latest column. Heyman speculates on the future of 2009 AL MVP Joe Mauer, saying:

"The team-oriented Mauer is said by sources to be giving the Twins a chance to put their 2010 team together while he awaits contract talks that are sure to become the landmark case for a superstar player and a (relatively) small-market team, albeit a team leaving its albatross of a dome for a beautiful new baseball-only facility."

I'll tell ya, Mauer seems to be a class individual. He's obviously a truly elite player, far and away the best catcher in the sport. But, growing up in St. Paul, Mauer seems to see the allure of being a Twin his whole career. Heyman continues:


"Mauer is said to be supremely confident in his position, and that's evidenced by his willingness to give the Twins time to get their own house in order. And why shouldn't he be confident? He is coming off an otherworldly MVP season in which he led the American League in batting average, slugging percentage and on-base percentage, and knows that if he presses the market, the Red Sox and Yankees are almost sure to come calling at season's end. "

There lies the problem. Heyman later throws out the idea of a 7-year, $150 million contract for Mauer. The Twins might be able to handle that; the Red Sox probably could but don't usually hand out deals that large; the Yankees or Mets will do it with zero hesitation, and the Yankees would likely go into the Teixeira Zone to bring Mauer in, if they decide they need him.

With a player like Mauer, an elite hitter and defender at the most premium of positions, any team could use him. The Red Sox have Victor Martinez, who's good, but could play first, where Kevin Youkilis is, and Youkilis could play third in 2011. Fixed.

The Mets are looking forward to 2 years of Bengie Molina. Could they eat the last year and bench Molina--who's not likely to be productive at all--and sign Mauer? Sure.

The Yankees have an old, injury-prone (but still productive) catcher in Jorge Posada, and his deal expires in 2012. With Nick Johnson around only for a season, Posada could slide into the DH/backup catcher role, opening up a spot for Mauer. Problem solved.

The key issue with Mauer's contract discussions is, will he accept less money to stay in Minnesota? I'm certain his agents know that the Yankees or Red Sox would not just break the bank, they'd nuke it to get Mauer on their roster. If the Twins offer 6-years, $100 million, the Red Sox could offer 7-years, $140 million. If the Twins come back with Heyman's idea of 7-years, $150 million, the Yankees could go 8-years, $180 million.

Mauer will be forced to leave a lot of money on the table to remain a Twin. Will he do that? It should be the story of Spring Training and the deadline.

Why the deadline? Because if the Twins are out of it--not real likely, but possible--the Twins should consider dealing Mauer.

Look at the last major trade, involving Roy Halladay. The Blue Jays received what can be roughly called the Phillies' top 2 prospects. Halladay's a 32 year old pitcher, albeit likely the best pitcher in the game.

Mauer, though, is entering his Age-27 season, just had the best offensive year any catcher's ever had, and should be about to enter a devastating peak. Mauer's worth far more than Halladay, and if the Twins are forced to deal them, they should demand no less than top dollar.

That means if the Yankees call, accept no less than Jesus Montero and one of Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes plus a good deal more.

If Theo Epstein calls, demand Casey Kelly, Clay Buchholz and some more.

The Twins can't afford to receive less than full value, because even if Mauer hits free agency and signs elsewhere, Minnesota receives draft picks. The Twins would have all the leverage as far as I'm concerned in trade talks.

But Twinkie fans don't care about that right now. They want to know if Mauer will remain a Twin. As a Yankee fan, I'd love to see Mauer rake in Yankee Stadium. I'm sure Red Sox fans would love to see him in a Boston uniform.

I think it all comes down to this. If Mauer chooses playing at home for really good money over playing away from home for astronomical money, he'll remain a Twin. But that's an awfully tough call.

Adam can be reached at adamdadkins@gmail.com