Reaction: Ben Sheets Is An Elephant

Here's the link to prove it.  Billy Beane and the A's signed Ben Sheets to a 1-year, $10 million deal today, giving them a potential ace with about half the cost.

I like this move.  I do believe Ben Sheets can be a very good pitcher again, perhaps among the 30 best in the AL.  The Sheets of 2004 is gone; but the Sheets of 2008 might still be around, and if he is, he's worth a good deal more than $10 million.

But Sheets doesn't come without significant risk.  His health situation--which culminated in a season-ending surgical to repair the flexor tendon in his pitching elbow--kept bidders away last off season, despite Sheets pitching quite well for the Brewers that season.  However, Sheets claims to be healthy, and scouts were presumably pleased with his recent workout.

I'm not sure what the A's can expect, though.  You'd like Sheets to be good on a per-inning basis, but how many innings does he have?  Is 160 a good over/under?  Expecting anything more might be unfair.

I do wonder if Oakland has visions of flipping Sheets for a prospect should he start off like gangbusters.  Oakland probably can't afford to pay $10 million to a player with such risk--it really makes me think they will try hard to deal him come July.

That's not a bad idea, mind you.  For instance, I suspect the Pirates might flip new closer Octavio Dotel if he has a nice year.  I'm not suggesting any team model their decision-making after Pittsburgh's, of course.  I'm merely saying the idea of dealing Sheets for a prospect is a smart one.

What should an A's fan expect out of Sheets?  I wish I knew, and I'm eager to see his PECOTA.  But for now, assuming he's in Oakland all year, I'll suggest 165 innings, 4.09 ERA, and about a 2.60 K to BB ratio.  (Remember, he is moving to the tougher league.)  I'm usually overly optimistic with my projections, though. 

All in all, it's a smart move by Oakland.  It's a bit more money than I think the risk warrants, but if Ben Sheets can be Ben Sheets again, this is a steal.

Adam can be reached at adamdadkins@gmail.com