Sunday, January 10, 2010

Reaction: Oh No. What Did Walt Jocketty Go And Do?

The Cincinnati Reds signed Aroldis Chapman to a 5-year, $25 million contract today, and the deal includes a potential player option. The deal is the first major move of the winter for the Reds and GM Walt Jocketty, and I gotta say, I like it.

Chapman, in terms of stuff, is still an unknown commodity. I seriously doubt he "sits" at 100 MPH, but he could touch 97 MPH+, which for a left hander is very impressive. There are questions concerning his talents that probably can't be answered until he faces live batters in front of scouts, including his ability to throw an off-speed pitch, his command, and whether he can retain his velocity.

Clearly, though, the Reds liked what they saw when Chapman worked out for a group of scouts in Houston a month ago.

But ignore that for a moment. Even if Chapman doesn't pan out, this is a good move by the Reds. I've hammered Cincinnati repeatedly for not spending for the future. They finally listened.

Signing Chapman is risky, but it shows that Walt Jocketty understands the Reds need young talent to build around, and Chapman is that kind of pitcher. He certainly has ace potential, which is key. The Reds simply have little impact talent right now, and though this signing doesn't fill the cupboard, it does improve the situation. The Reds didn't go for a Mike Leake here, they went for a high-ceiling guy.

The price isn't too bad, either. $25 million sounds high, but think back to the Stephen Strasburg negotiations. Despite having an incredibly more reliable track record and pattern of success, Strasburg received a record 4-year, $14.5 million deal. Why? Because the draft system is intentionally rigged to support the pressure on keeping salaries down. Put Strasburg on the open market, like Chapman was, and the price sky rockets.

Considering Cincinnati was facing the New York Yankees, Mets, Boston Red Sox and others in the courtship, signing Chapman to a 5-year, $25 million deal is almost impressive. He's a premium prospect, and would've been 2nd on most everyone's draft boards last June.

If you look at the deal in terms of AAV, it's $5 million a year. Assuming he spends 2 years in the minors, the Reds would essentially have given him a $10 million bonus on top of a 3-year, $15 million contract. That'd be a fine deal if he becomes a decent pitcher, and it's a heist if he becomes what the Reds think he could be--a front-line starter.

There are risks involved with this contract, but the Reds made a risk that could at least benefit them long-term. It's far smarter than signing Joel Pineiro or one of the other mid-level free agent starters available just to appease the fans. The fans will only be happy if the team starts winning.

Signing Aroldis Chapman shows that the Reds understand the future is what's important.

Adam can be reached via adamdadkins@gmail.com

0 comments:

Support the Haiti Disaster Relief Effort