Who Wants Jose Valverde?

I guess only the Tigers.

I'm torn on Valverde. He's got that Proven Closer (R) label on him, which of course means nothing to me. That means something to some people, but I wonder how good the guy is.

Sure, his ERA in Houston last season was under 2.5. But his strikeout-to-walk ratio, while good (2.67), isn't mind-blowing. He walked 21 batters in 54 innings, a 3.50 per 9 ratio, which means despite his nice heat and good strikeout ability, he struggles with command.

Also, that was all in the NL. The AL is a tougher league, as we all know. Valverde can have value in the AL, but he's likely not a shut down guy unless he has a nice BABIP year (you know, like he did in 2009).

His BABIPs are interesting, too. Here are they are, from 2005 on, with his ERA in parentheses:

2005: .291 (2.44)
2006: .386 (5.84)
2007: .274 (2.66)
2008: .302 (3.38)
2009: .267 (2.33)

He's been very good, good, and horrible, and it all seems to fall back on his BABIP. Also, his FIPs are never as low as his ERA, suggesting the Astros defense--I know, right--benefited him the last 2 years, and the Arizona gloves helped too.

His ERA of the last 5 seasons is 3.33. Is he a 3.33 ERA guy in the American League? I doubt it. I don't know if he can miss enough bats to cover up for his walks. Good pitchers don't allow many free passes.

His stats aren't bad, though. He's had some success, as his ERAs show.

However, I don't think Valverde is a good fit in the AL. This might just be a gut feeling--I've heard a good friend of mine who's an Astro fan complain about Valverde for the last 2 years--but I can see his BABIPs sky-rocketing against hitters that can stand up to his fastball. His split-finger is quality, but doesn't seem to be a truly excellent pitch.

Valverde depended heavily on his fastball in 2009, throwing it 70% of the time. He uses it to get into a pitcher's count, and then turns to his split, which he threw nearly 27% of the time. However, I don't know how effective the split is: Fangraphs rated it as Valverde's third best pitch, behind his fastball and his little used slider. His fastball can get to him two strikes; can he get a consistent third strike with his split or slider?

That's the question, I guess.

Looking at the Fangraphs pitch quality stuff brings to light a bit of an odd trend in Valverde's fastball effectiveness. From 2005 on, Valverde's fastball quality in terms of "runs above average":

2005: 18.7
2006: 5.4
2007: 7.2
2008: 8.9
2009: 4.6

Hmm. See how that fluctuates? I'm not sure if that's a real bad thing, but I don't think it's good for the future that his worst fastball year was his last.

Valverde will be entering his age-30 season, which doesn't mean quite as much for a pitcher as it does a hitter, but again, isn't the best thing. Pitchers can have odd peaks, and those peaks can last forever (Mariano Rivera) or for just a moment (Countless hard-throwers that no one cares about). Valverde also doesn't have a discernible peak, especially with his bad 2006 showing.

Or, did he peak in the last 3 years? Perhaps so. But that means Valverde's not an elite pitcher, which is fine, because the Tigers aren't likely to spend much more than 2-years, $15 million. If the Tigers expect to be spending pennies and getting gold, they are sadly mistaken. And yes, it is somewhat terrifying that $15 million can be considered pennies in today's world.

The Tigers closer last season was Fernando Rodney, who recently signed a 2-year, $11 million deal with the Angels. His 2009 FIP was 4.56. Valverde's was 3.98 (in the NL). Is there really that much difference between Rodney and Valverde? Neither have good control, both rely heavily on fastballs.

True, Rodney's command is worse. But, put Rodney in the NL and Valverde in the AL, and I really wonder how much different they are.

My gut feeling tells me the Tigers would regret signing Valverde.

Adam can be reached at adamdadkins@gmail.com