Why The Reds Not Spending Is Smart

I live in Dayton, appear on a radio show and visit several different Ohio sports forums. In doing so, I am able to take the pulse of a couple different fanbases, namely the Ohio State Buckeyes, Cincinnati Bengals and the Cincinnati Reds.

And lately, Reds fans haven't been pleased with current GM Walt Jocketty and the team's lack of major signings. Some of them point to the Cardinals bringing back Matt Holliday and scream that the Reds need to respond. Some of them, foolishly, point to the Cubs acquiring Carlos freaking Silva and complain.

And you know what? The fans are all wrong.

The Reds made one major move last year, the trade for Scott Rolen. I felt it was stupid then and I feel it's stupid now, because it cost them money and players to acquire an aging third baseman who isn't likely to still be on the team should Cincy ever return to the playoffs. Simply put, Rolen's not a part of the future, and considering the Reds need like 7 more Scott Rolen's to be important in the present, it was a waste to acquire him. Same thing for the ridiculous Francisco Cordero deal.

But the fans seem to want that kind of move. Mark Schlemmer, the host of the show I linked above, will holler about Jocketty not being "in" on anything. What do you want him to do? Sign Jason Bay to a 4-year, $66 million contract? The Reds can't afford that.

The Reds should not be spending any significant amount of money on the free agent market. The Reds cannot afford any major player anyway, and the sad fact remains that Cincinnati is quite a few players away from being good. Over the last 5 years, the Reds have averaged 75 wins in what could be called the weakest division in baseball. They are consistently below-average. The Reds aren't "one piece away". More like 7.

It is easy to forget the circumstances when your chief in-division rivals are making moves. The Cardinals bring back Holliday and are now a contender to win the National League. The Reds bring in Holliday and they might win 80 games, but it would likely ruin their budget and force them to draft more Mike Leake types (read: cheap players) in the 1st round. Add Holliday and the Reds are, shock, still not a contender.

Instead of big moves, the Reds should be focusing on the big picture, with the immediate concern being getting Jay Bruce (remember him? Big time prospect? Ring a bell?) on the right track, and then being prepared to draft for upside in the draft. Cincy is at a loss for talent right now, especially after Edinson Volquez's elbow surgery. And even though they've allegedly been rebuilding for years, poor management has kept them in a rut.

Fixing the Reds will not be quick or easy, and I've certainly not supported Jocketty's entire tenure in the Queen City, but his frugality of late is the right move, even if fans don't get behind it.

But, as always, the best way to please the fans is to win baseball games. Spending for the future is the way to winning, because 2010 isn't a playoff year anyway. Build for later on. Joey Votto is a cornerstone. Todd Frazier's not a premium prospect, but he's worth something, and if Bruce turns it around, suddenly you have some young talent going. I don't think the Reds have any good young pitching (I scoff at Johnny Cueto), but that'll come.

Better days could be coming if Jocketty makes the right moves, and this winter is a good start, but Reds fans should be prepared for another year of less than 80 wins.

Adam can be reached at adamdadkins@gmail.com