Guest Post: Justin Zeth's Almighty Tecmo Predictions: NFC Championship

Here is his AFC Championship pick, and we'll get to the NFC after the jump.

Reaction: Joel Pineiro Is An Angel

The Anaheim Angels haven't had a brilliant off-season.  They've lost Chone Figgins, John Lackey and Vladimir Guerrero.  The rival Seattle Mariners, meanwhile, have been making smart moves all winter.

 So what do the Angels and GM Tony Reagins do?   They signed Joel Pineiro for 2-years and $16 million.  

Future's so bright you gotta wear shades, eh Angel fans?

Heh.  Let's start off by saying this.  Joel Pineiro isn't going to replace John Lackey in any shape or form.  He's not as durable or productive as the Angels former ace, but he's also far cheaper.

Pineiro re-invented himself last season in St. Louis as a groundball machine (60% rate, which is pretty).  It appears real, too, because Pineiro's BABIP wasn't out of whack (.298), which makes me think it wasn't just Dave Duncan's magic wand that did this.

That said, can Pineiro's new found shtick work in the big boy league?  Maybe. 

Pineiro's walks per 9 took a nose dive last season (which made him look even better) and that's probably a bit fluky, and that's where he'll find trouble in the AL.  The groundball rate might be real, but I don't know if the newfound command is.

Why do I think so?  Because Pineiro's transformation did occur under Duncan, so it would appear leaving Duncan's web of influence would be detrimental.  If Pineiro can maintain his 1.14 walks per 9 ratio in Los Angeles, great.  I'm not betting on it.

But that's okay.  Pineiro's not pricey.  He's getting roughly two-thirds of Joe Blanton's contract, but will he even be worth that?  And, being two-thirds of Joe Blanton (an NL #3 starter) might mean Pineiro is at-best a fifth starter in the AL.   Is that what Reagins got?  A fifth-starter?

Probably.  It's hard to pitch to contact in a league full of mashers.  If Pineiro's walk rate goes up, that means more base runners; if Pineiro's sinkers stop sinking as well (or they just get hit harder more often) that means more hits; more base runners plus more hits leads to snide comments on BTF after your starts.

This is a risky move, Angel fans.  I don't expect Pineiro to throw 200 innings this year or next (he did that twice between 2000 and 2009).  I don't expect Pineiro to produce an ERA under 4.00.  I don't expect a walk rate under 1.5, and I don't expect an astounding 60% groundball rate.

I do, however, expect Angel fans to be dreading Pineiro's starts by August barring some fluke.

Adam can be reached at adamdadkins@gmail.com.

Reaction: Joe Blanton Gets An Extension

The Philadelphia Phillies are really smart to lock up Joe Blanton.  In giving him a 3-year, $24 million deal, they keep Blanton for less than he's worth (always good for the team) while retaining a higher level of production than most realize.  Joe Blanton's actually good.

Why's he good?  For one, dude throws a lot of innings.  Over the last 5 seasons, Blanton's averaging 203 innings a year.  To contextualize that, newly rich Red Sox starter John Lackey's averaging only 197.

(Heh, I know.  That was nitpicking.  It's like one freakin' start, and Lackey's better per-inning.)

Blanton's also productive in the mass of innings he throws.  He seems to be taking to the NL (his K to BB last year was nearly 2.8, which is pretty nice) and has age on his side.  Blanton's not quite 30 yet, and as such can be expected to stay at about this level. 

What exactly is Blanton's level?  Not an ace and not a #2, but a nice, solid #3 starter.  He gives you pretty much exactly what you want from a #3 (unless you can spend $15 million+ on each starter), which is lots of innings and quality in those innings.

Very nice deal for the Phillies.

Email Adam at adamdadkins@gmail.com

Guest Post: Justin Zeth's Almighty Tecmo Predictions: AFC Championship

 My good buddy Justin Zeth is handling some football projections for me.  Here he is, previewing Colts-Jets.
For those of you unfamiliar with the Almighty Tecmo, here's the story. If you don't care, you can skip ahead to the good stuff.

2000 was my freshman year at Penn State, and being as socially maladjusted and uninterested in consuming alcohol as I was, I had an ungodly amount of free time on my hands. I chose to spend a fair chunk of it hacking the 2000 NFL rosters into Tecmo Super Bowl III: Final Edition for the SNES, and then, a week before the 2000 season began, simulating the entire season, game by game, running every game as CPU vs. CPU (the emulator's frameskip, or 'fast forward', function, immensely helps with this).

At the end of the season, Tecmo predicted that the Baltimore Ravens (8-8 in 1999) would defeat the New York Giants (7-9 in 1999) in Super Bowl 35.

That both those teams even made the playoffs was surprising enough to me and to everyone else on earth. As it happened, Tecmo correctly guessed eight of the 12 playoff teams, not half bad either. So after updating the rosters to reflect various injuries, I ran the entire playoffs again, using a particular system (summarized below).

Tecmo not only again predicted the Ravens would beat the Giants for the championship; it got every single game right. 11-0.

I've never run the full playoffs again since then; instead, I just run the conference championship games and the Super Bowl. And I missed a couple of years in there (2002, 2003). But Tecmo's all-time record to the present time is 28-1. And the one miss kind of has an asterisk, in that it actually projected a tie in the 2004 AFC Championship; I had to decide on a fair way to break the tie, and broke it on which team won more of the five simulations. That was the Steelers. The Patriots blew the Steelers out, of course.

Consider the Almighty Tecmo's performance last year, when it predicted:

• That the Steelers would beat the Ravens in a low scoring game;
• That one big reason why the Steelers would win was because Troy Polamalu would take an interception to the house;
• That the Cardinals would beat the Eagles largely because of Larry Fitzgerald going bonkers;
• That Larry Fitzgerald would go bonkers again in the Super Bowl, but the Steelers would edge them out anyway and Ben Roethlisberger would win the MVP.*

* Yes, I know the award was actually, and ludicrously, given to Santonio Holmes. The point stands.

Short version of how this works: I've hacked the current rosters into TSB3. I will run five simulations of each game and record the scores and important happenings of each. I then calculate each team's mean and median score of the five simulations, then average those two numbers. That's its Tecmo Projected Score.

The projections begin after the jump.

Do You Remember How Awesome Johan Santana Was (In 2004)?

I'm going to try to do these more often. I've already profiled Frank Thomas and Randy Johnson, but today I'm going to come more into recent history, focusing tonight on Johan Santana's superb 2004 season.

This was Johan's Leap. This is the season Johan Santana firmly stepped into the upper echelon of pitchers, and he stayed there for the rest of the decade.

I'm sure you remember the stats, but here they are anyway. Santana threw 228 innings, with an ERA+ of 188, 265 strikeouts, and an absurd 54 walks (a paltry 4.91 K to BB ratio).

Further more, Santana led the AL or baseball entirely in the following:

• Strikeouts
• ERA
• ERA+
• WHIP
• Hits per 9
• Strikeouts per 9

The writers, bless their souls, gave him an unanimous Cy Young Award, and in retrospect, well, they were right. No one in the AL was close.

What else can be said? Well, Santana's second-half was ridiculous, and if he'd played in New York (his whole career, not just the last two seasons) his second-half performances would be things of legend. Super Johan tended to be unreal after the All-Star Break.

2004 was no exception. From July 11th that season until the end, Santana threw 112 innings to a 1.28 ERA. He sat down 140 helpless souls and walked only 25. He was mind-blowing.

If you tack on his two excellent postseason starts against the 101-win New York Yankees (12 innings, 0.75 ERA, 12 strikeouts) it makes it even more obvious.

Johan Santana was pretty damn awesome in 2004. However, I've got more.

Santana always struck me as more finesse than power. That's not a bad thing--Greg Maddux was a finesse pitcher too. But without a super fastball, how did Santana strike out such a high amount of batters?

First off, I don't know if anyone this side of Curt Schilling had better command than peak-Johan, in particular the command of his dynamite changeup. His ability to set up batters and then unleash the nasty change with exactly the same arm-motion is what made him truly excellent.

There's virtually zero change in arm speed or slot from fastball to changeup with Santana. There was no tell. Hitters were reduced to guessing, and evidently they failed. Miserably.

His reign of dominance continued basically until 2009, when some injuries coupled with pitching in front of a team roughly as good as the Little Leaguers down the road made it a rough go for Super Johan.

The future is a bit cloudy for Santana coming off some elbow problems, but there's no doubt his 2004 season was awesome.

Adam can be reached at adamdadkins@gmail.com

Reaction: Bengie Molina Re-Signs With San Francisco

In the past week, I've been fortunate enough to write about teams making smart decisions. The Reds, Mariners, and Marlins all made good moves in the last week, and I was able to praise them.

However, the Tigers did something stupid, but the Giants might have one-upped them. They signed Bengie Molina last evening a 1-year $4.5 million deal, bringing the hefty catcher back into the fold for 2010.

I'm not going to even hesitate here. Get ready, lots of attacks lay ahead. You ready? Okay.

This is a remarkably stupid signing. Molina simply does nothing well.

His OBPs the last 3 seasons are .298, .322, and .285, or as I like to call them, "Total Crap." There is simply no way for a player to produce OBPs that low and still be decent. It can't happen.

Well, I suppose if the batter could field like Ozzie Smith and run the bases like Rickey Henderson he could be alright. If, also, the batter hit for power like Stan Musial, well, that player could be good.

But Molina's a terrible defender, the slowest base runner in the sport and has never produced a slugging percentage over .470. He sucks.

It's not getting better, either. Molina's already 34, will be 35 in July. He's in full on decline now, which means his OBPs could fall even further. If they do, even Jeff Francoeur will be impressed.

Offensive production can be defined in three ways: reaching base, hitting for power and base-running. Molina is abysmal in two of the areas and okay in one. That's not a major league player, especially when you consider his perpetually overrated defense and his foot speed, which is roughly on par with a wingless, footless bird.

But, hey, GM Brian Sabean had an extra $4.5 million lying around, burning a hole in his pocket. We all know how that feels. You see a car with no engine, blown out tires and a bad paint job at the dealership and it's so hard to say no. We've all made this mistake, right?

(I hope not.)

It actually gets worse, Giant fans. This move effectively blocks Buster Posey, the Giants 2008 1st round draft choice, despite him being ready (and certainly deserving of a chance). Posey hit a decidedly un-Molina like .327/.421/.538 in the minors last season, but the Giants apparently were not impressed with his Arizona Fall League numbers.

Dissenters might point out that Posey was likely exhausted after playing his first full year in a pro league. They might point out that Posey went all Mike Piazza in the minors and didn't need to prove anything.

But, well, if you can spend $4.5 million on a player who hardily could be more worthless, well, you gotta do it.

The Giants made a colossal blunder bringing back Molina. Despite his aforementioned worthlessness and his price tag, the real problem is his blocking of Posey, who is ready for a shot at the big league level. The Giants offense is awful, and Posey has a real chance of mashing. Too bad we won't find out until 2011.

Adam likes being mean to bad teams. Be mean to Adam at adamdadkins@gmail.com.

Reaction: Felix Hernandez Is Staying In Seattle For A While

You know, Jack Zduriencik really knows what he's doing. He tacked yet another excellent move onto his off season docket last evening, signing Felix Hernandez to a 5-year, $78 million extension that eliminates his remaining arbitration years but keeps the King in line for a CC Sabathia-esque leap into free agency down the road.

Few deals are so obviously good for both sides as this one. The Mariners lock Felix up throughout his peak, giving them a dominant young ace that can become the face of the franchise. Hernandez is their best home grown product since Alex Rodriguez, and the Mariners are paying him accordingly.

I'm going to assume that Hernandez is receiving $15.6 million a year for argument's sake, which, somewhat laughably, makes him underpaid. CC Sabathia is the highest paid pitcher in baseball, but he's certainly not worth $7.5 million more per year than Hernandez.

Considering what the big-money teams would've paid for him, the Mariners are getting Hernandez cheap. He's making less than AJ Burnett and John Lackey, two pitchers who are absolutely not on his level, and he's considerably younger (he'll by 24 around Opening Day).

That said, Felix is getting a deserved raise from the deal. I don't think he's ever earned more than $4 million any given year, so he's effectively quadrupling his pay. That seems extravagant, but he's worth every penny.

Hernandez might have the best raw stuff in the game. He throws a hard fastball (Fangraphs has it at 94 MPH on average), an excellent change up, plus two quality breaking balls. He works off his fastball primarily, which is hardly a surprise given it's quality.

However, despite his overpowering stuff, Felix gets a decent amount of ground balls. A 53% rate isn't exemplary, but it does show that he can get outs auxiliary to the strikeouts. That's an excellent indication that Hernandez has learned how to use his pitches properly.

Despite not having to rely on his strikeouts, Hernandez still gobbles up plenty of them. He's struck out at least 7.8 per 9 in his big league career, and last year sat down 217 batters in 238 innings.

His command is also improving. After an odd blip in 2008, Hernandez brought his walks per 9 ratio back down to 2.68 in 2009, giving him a superb 3.06 K to BB ratio for the season. To give that some context, the aforementioned Sabathia's 2009 figure was 2.98.

With any young pitcher comes risk, and Felix has mileage on his arm. In his 4 full years in the bigs (his first at the tender age of 20), Felix has never thrown less than 190 innings, and last year peaked at 238. That was a 38 inning increase over 2008, and that does put him in Verducci Effect danger, because of the increase and his age.

Quoting directly from Baseball Prospectus: "Will Carroll independently found that pitchers who break the "Rule of 30" tend to get injured." Tom Verducci, whom Carroll re-named the effect after, discovered that pitchers tend to simply under perform.

How big of a concern is it? Enough that the Mariners should probably expect a somewhat "down" year from Felix 2010, perhaps a 140 ERA+ instead of his excellent 174 mark for 2009. Even though that's still awesome, it would be a noticeable decline.

Injury possibility is obviously the true worry, though. In 2007, Felix did miss time with an elbow tightness issue, but in fairness, it appears nothing came of it.

All of that had to be said, but don't let me fool you. This is an awesome deal for the Mariners, who continue to make brilliant decisions. I can't guarantee an AL West title or a playoff spot just yet (although the gap between Seattle and the Angels has closed), I can tell Mariner fans that times have truly changed.

This isn't Bill Bavasi's organization anymore.

Adam loves Felix. Do you? Email him at adamdadkins@gmail.com

Ben Sheets To Work Out

And everyone's gonna be there! Well, aside from the teams that aren't listed.

Ben Sheets is an enigma to me as a free agent pitcher. Look at his 2004-08 stats: 839 IP, 134 ERA+, 5.16 K to BB.

The caveat is, of course, he's rarely healthy. His 2008 year seemed pretty awesome, but things went down hill late in the year, no one signed him and he had surgery. He missed all of 2009.

That's all back story, of course.

What does Sheets offer a team? He is the classic high-risk, high-reward free agent pitcher. Why?

He's risky because no one knows Dr. Andrews' office better than Sheets and because he won't be cheap. He's high-reward because, well, 134 ERA+, 5.16 K to BB. If healthy, Sheets is awesome.

In fact, Sheets is either hurt or good (and usually great). Since 2004, Sheets hasn't posted an ERA+ lower than 116 or a K to BB lower than 2.86. It needs to be said that he's also thrown less than 190 innings three of those years.

Sheets seems an obvious fit for the NL. I don't think Sheets jumping leagues is a good idea. Why? Because he's going to get hurt at some point, and if he spends 70+ innings getting acclimated to the new league, you might only get 60 or so more of Sheets-level production (if Sheets-level production still exists in his right arm).

Sheets will likely struggle at first, because the difference between facing no batters and then facing the best in the world is enormous. Should be expected after missing all of 2009, though.

Anyway, all of that leads me here. I'm going to go down MLBTR's list of bullets and tell you what teams I like for Sheets. I might also make stupid jokes. I'm branching out.

Cubs

Well, I suppose Sheets could fill Rich Harden's spot on the DL.

Err. His spot in the rotation, I mean.

I couldn't complain if the Cubs signed Sheets. Slot him behind Ted Lilly, Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster and (who's that?) Randy Wells. Don't expect too much; Sheets will get hurt. In the same vein, don't pay him too much.

Rangers

I dislike the idea of a league change, but Sheets does seem to swear by Mike Maddux, the current pitching coach for the Rangers and Sheets' former pitching coach in Milwaukee.

It could happen, I guess. The Rangers pitching sucks, so any quality they can acquire would help.

Cardinals

Perfect fit. Sheets wouldn't be expected to do much behind Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter, plus he'd have Dave Duncan, plus St. Louis is an awesome baseball town.

Blue Jays

Bad fit. League change, but worse because he'd be facing the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays. Unless Toronto foolishly throws a ton of money at Sheets, this isn't happening.

Dodgers

Good fit. They could use him, too. With Chad Billingsley being whatever he became down the stretch, the Dodgers are seemingly ace-less, and Sheets might be able to dominate in the NL West. Until he gets hurt, at least.

Brewers

I'd be pretty shocked to see Sheets go back to Milwaukee. With no Mike Maddux and the Brewers apparently courting the date-less Mark Mulder, the fit seems impossible.

Mets

Good lord. If Ben Sheets signed a contract with the Mets, his UCL would explode a nanosecond after the ink dried.

Don't rule out the Yankees, Orioles or Mariners.

The Yankees aren't doing it; the Orioles aren't a bad idea if he's cheap (perhaps he's awesome in the first-half and they trade him for a prospect?); and the Mariners could do anything. A Felix-Lee-Sheets triumvirate might be so tasty they could sell it in the concession stands.

What do I think will happen? The Cardinals sound like the favorite. It's a perfect situation. If you can tolerate him having a reservation on the DL, give him a shot.

150 IP, 115 ERA+ and a 2.75 K to BB is possible--probably high bar--but still possible. I think a lot of teams could use that, no?

Send Adam angry emails at adamdadkins@gmail.com.