Reaction: Randy Winn Has Been Fitted For Pinstripes

I'm just as surprised as you are.  Without getting into the Johnny Damon stuff, let's dig into what Winn brings to the Yankees.

Reaction: Thome Is A Twin

The Minnesota Twins signed Jim Thome to a 1-year, $1.5 million deal today, giving them an excellent DH option to complement MVP Joe Mauer and former MVP Justin Morneau in the middle of their order.

As with every signing that occurs this late, risk is prominently involved.  With Thome, I think it's twofold. 

For one, at age 39, can he still hit?  Last year as a White Sox, he handled the stick pretty well: .249/.372/.493 (122 OPS+).  That'll play.

Most everyone could use a 122 OPS+ bat in their lineup, especially for that price.  It's conceivable that Thome will outproduce someone like Alfonso Soriano at the plate next season, which is amazing considering Thome will make 1/12 of what Soriano will.

However, each year makes expecting a 122 OPS+ harder and harder.  But, as long as he keeps hitting, age is just a number.

The second risk?  Injuries.  They only get worse with age, and Thome's no spring chicken.   That said, Thome held up well as a DH in Chicago, and if he never sees the field in Minnesota he's likely to be around for 130 or more games.   Then again, there's been pretty consistent rumors of back trouble for Thome, but, like I said above, as long as he keeps tying on his cleats, rumors are just that.

Now, what can Thome be expected to do as a Twin?  Hit.  Maybe not rake, but his 2008 line in Chicago is a good guess.  I'd suggest nothing below a 115 OPS+ unless the bottom totally falls out. 

The bottom falling out is pretty much the worst thing that could happen, but guess what?  It cost them $1.5 million.  Hardly a loss, especially compared to Oakland's $10 million commitment to Ben Sheets.  Anyone would feel that--well, other than the Yankees--but $1.5 million isn't damaging.

Good move by the Twins.  He provides them with a bat they can very much use, and suddenly they have a pretty solid 3-4-5 in their order.  Considering he came very, very cheap, this could end up being a really good move for Minnesota.

Email Adam at adamdadkins@gmail.com

Reaction: Jon Garland + PETCO = Joy?

The Padres hope so.  They signed Jon Garland to a 1-year, $4.7 million deal (plus more potentially) today, giving them a pitcher that will fit like a glove in their monstrosity of a ballpark.

I've heard numerous people call Garland "league-average", and I suppose that could be true.  His last 3 ERA+s?  111, 91, 111.  Not bad, not great, which I suppose does make him league-average.

However, I look at his K to BB ratios over the last 3 years (1.79, 1.53, 1.72) and I don't see a league-average pitcher.  But, he's comfortably in the NL now, in the best pitcher's park the game offers.

There simply isn't much to say here.  San Diego spent some money--all the poor teams are doing it, just ask Oakland, Pittsburgh and Florida--and they spent it wisely, I guess. 

Garland doesn't have the downside risk of Ben Sheets--but he also doesn't have the upside.  He's a 4.30-ish ERA pitcher in the weaker league.  Perhaps he jumps out to a nice start, wins some games and hits the break with about a 3.70 ERA.  Could San Diego flip him to a contender?  Absolutely.

They didn't spend too much, and they aren't expecting a whole lot.  Jon Garland's a decent pitcher, and he's being paid like one.  I wish there was more to say, but alas.

Adam wishes he could say more.  He knows you can say all you want, and he'd like to hear it adamdadkins@gmail.com.

Reaction: Ben Sheets Is An Elephant

Here's the link to prove it.  Billy Beane and the A's signed Ben Sheets to a 1-year, $10 million deal today, giving them a potential ace with about half the cost.

I like this move.  I do believe Ben Sheets can be a very good pitcher again, perhaps among the 30 best in the AL.  The Sheets of 2004 is gone; but the Sheets of 2008 might still be around, and if he is, he's worth a good deal more than $10 million.

But Sheets doesn't come without significant risk.  His health situation--which culminated in a season-ending surgical to repair the flexor tendon in his pitching elbow--kept bidders away last off season, despite Sheets pitching quite well for the Brewers that season.  However, Sheets claims to be healthy, and scouts were presumably pleased with his recent workout.

I'm not sure what the A's can expect, though.  You'd like Sheets to be good on a per-inning basis, but how many innings does he have?  Is 160 a good over/under?  Expecting anything more might be unfair.

I do wonder if Oakland has visions of flipping Sheets for a prospect should he start off like gangbusters.  Oakland probably can't afford to pay $10 million to a player with such risk--it really makes me think they will try hard to deal him come July.

That's not a bad idea, mind you.  For instance, I suspect the Pirates might flip new closer Octavio Dotel if he has a nice year.  I'm not suggesting any team model their decision-making after Pittsburgh's, of course.  I'm merely saying the idea of dealing Sheets for a prospect is a smart one.

What should an A's fan expect out of Sheets?  I wish I knew, and I'm eager to see his PECOTA.  But for now, assuming he's in Oakland all year, I'll suggest 165 innings, 4.09 ERA, and about a 2.60 K to BB ratio.  (Remember, he is moving to the tougher league.)  I'm usually overly optimistic with my projections, though. 

All in all, it's a smart move by Oakland.  It's a bit more money than I think the risk warrants, but if Ben Sheets can be Ben Sheets again, this is a steal.

Adam can be reached at adamdadkins@gmail.com

Examining Derek Jeter's "Quest" For 4000 Hits

First, read this nice article by Lucas Vanderwarker at LoHud.

Got it read?  Cool.  Now realize one thing.  Lucas's assumption is really a big one.  Here it is again:

"Let’s assume Jeter plays 10 more seasons to give him the same amount as Rose. Let’s go a step further and assume two of those seasons will be plagued with injury (let’s be honest, he is getting older). In eight healthy seasons, Jeter would need to average 157 hits to reach 4,000. Should he be healthy every season, he would only need 125 per season."

Derek Jeter will be 36 in July.  36!  That's, um, old.

Assuming he'll play another 10 years is a fairly large assumption.  Even among the Hall of Famers, few of them survive into their mid-40s as viable baseball players.

Also, assuming that only two of those seasons will be injury ravaged is risky.  Jeter's old (have I made that clear?).  He's got a lot of miles on him.  Jeter could blow a knee, tear his elbow, break his wrist, shred his shoulder or pop a hamstring the next time he puts on cleats.  Any of those things are possible, and growing more and more likely as he ages. 

Also, he could nose dive at the plate.  Lord knows his glove isn't keeping him around.  (I'll betcha if he stops hitting .300 every year his "intangibles" and "clutchitude" won't matter either.)

Derek's sole value is his bat.  It's very good; 121 OPS+ over 9800 PAs.  In 2009, he had one of his better years (improbably), hitting .334/.404/.465.  He was 35 years old.

Either that was the last big burst of his career (possible, considering 2008 wasn't as nice) and a decline will begin in earnest next season, or he's got some Pete Rose flowing through his veins, and I don't mean the card-counting skills.

Rose was a valuable player for seemingly ever; if Jeter wants 4000 hits, he'll need to be good until at least age 42. If he gets 190 hits a year until 2016 (his age-42 year), Jeter would sit at 3887 for his career.

Now, to be honest, assuming he can do that is pretty extreme, even though Jeter's averaged 200 hits since 2004.

Rose averaged 170 hits during that same age 37-to-42 frame I used for Jeter.  Of course, one of those seasons was strike-shortened, which cut about 40 hits off Rose's total.  If I tack 40 hits onto his 1981 total, that brings the average to 177.  

Can Jeter reach 4000 hits?  Until we see how he plays in his golden years, I think we have to leave it as a strong maybe.  Any number of things could reasonably go wrong, but I don't think I'd be surprised to see Jeter end up in the high 3000s when it's all over.

Now, there's something else Lucas said that I want to address:

"When you do, he’s right there to prove you wrong. When people began to doubt his ability to be an above average defensive shortstop, he worked that much harder to stay sharp and get better."

I'm a Yankee fan, so when I say this, understand that I've seen a great deal of Jeter's career.  He's never been above average with the mitt.

Adam Everett was above-average (sometimes excellent) defensively.  Jeter's defense never compared with his.  In fact, comparing their defensive abilities is like comparing America's military to Canada's.

Jeter tended to range from car-crash bad to merely right below average for much of his career.  He was a Boeing 747 into a barn or a slight fender-bender.  He's never deserved any Gold Gloves--good thing they don't matter.  His 2009 season--the only year UZR/150 says was above-average--is probably more fluke than anything.  Shortstops don't get better with the glove as they age unless they move to an easier position.

Anyway, Jeter's an excellent hitter and an obvious Hall of Famer.  Good work by Lucas to show everyone that in a different light.  Even discussing someone's proximity to 4000 hits shows their caliber.

Adam likes feedback like he gave Lucas.  Email him at adamdadkins@gmail.com.